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We're going to skip the NZ Employment Changes release today because
it is not a tradable report as per historical track record, plus
of the liquidity condition in the market, its probably best to
stay out.
***
NEWS TRADING
Wednesday February 3, 2010
[4:30am NY Time]
UK Services PMI         BUY 58.6       SELL 54.6     GBP/USD
We will be focusing on the Services PMI figure today and our minimum
deviation is 2.0 from the forecast release figure.  If we get at
least 58.6 or better, we could see some demand in the GBP and we
will consider BUYING GBP/USD or GBP/JPY pairs.  If we get a 54.7 or
worse release, GBP could weaken and we should look to SELL GBP/USD
or GBP/JPY pairs.
Because PMI's are leading indicators and are likely to set the tone
for January 2010 for GBP, especially the  Services PMI's as from UK
since UK's economy is 72% services based; therefore traders look at
this release for early direction in UK's economy.  However, keep in
mind that the GBP is under pressure from a stronger USD and general
risk aversion sentiment, therefore my bias is towards selling GBP.
Definition:
"The Chartered Institute of Purchasing and Supply (CIPS) Services
Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) measures the activity level of
purchasing managers in the services sector, with a reading above 50
indicating expansion. A rising trend has a positive effect on the
nation's currency. To produce the index, purchasing managers are
surveyed on a number of subjects including employment, production,
new orders, supplier deliveries, and inventories. Traders watch
these surveys closely because purchasing managers, by virtue of
their jobs, have early access to data about their company's
performance, which can be a leading indicator of overall economic
performance."
[8:15am NY Time]
US ADP NFP              BUY 50K     SELL -100K     USD/JPY
Our focus will be on the ADP NFP Employment Release once again
today, and because ADP is the largest private payroll processing
providers in the U.S., traders tend to pay more focus to this
release. ADP releases its version of Non-Farm Payroll numbers about
2 days before the actual NFP based on it's proprietary data. About
80% of the time ADP's release will go in tandem with the official
NFP, but the for the 20% of the exceptions,  we'd get figures that
could be totally off from the official NFP forecast.
This is of course an excellent indicator for the general risk
sentiment of the market as U.S. Employment situation is a global
concern; and of course this release sometimes serves as a preview of
the NFP on Friday; if the numbers comes out as a surprise of at
least 70K more or less from the Forecast of -31K, we should look to
trade in the direction of the surprise.
As I usually don't trade the ADP figure but rather use this release
as a reference for future market trend; however, I assume that most
investors are likely to do the same, but if the deviation of 70K is
actually hit, true speculators will probably have not problem
jumping into the market, and this will undoubtedly change market
perception on Friday's NFP release, therefore it is best to be
around your computer during the release time rather than finding out
what happened hours later and perhaps missed the entire movement.
[10:00am NY Time]
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI    BUY 53.5  SELL 48.5   USD/JPY
We'll be looking to trade the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, or better
known as the Services PMI; it is a leading indicator of the nation's
Services sector, as many investors look at this release for
immediate directional preferences on the future of the economy. 
With the current analyst's expectation above the 50 level at 51.1,
in the event that 53.5 is reached, we could see USD strength
returning to the market as JPY weakens across the board; however, if
the opposite is true, or 48.5 figure is released, expect to see
stronger JPY and possibly risk aversion driven market.
If our tradable releases are reached, there is a good expectation of
50 pips of market movement within the next 120 minutes on both
USD/JPY and EUR/USD pairs, among other USD crosses.  I'll be looking
to trade USD/JPY on a worse than expected release as USD/JPY may
show more of a decline, and sell EUR/USD on a better release as
EUR/USD may break the current support areas and breakout to the
downside...  Of course, it's important to consider the entire context
of the market when trading.
DEFINITION:
"The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Index
measures the activity level of purchasing managers in the services
sector, with a reading above 50 indicating expansion. A rising trend
has a positive effect on the nation's currency. To produce the
index, purchasing managers are surveyed on a number of subjects
including employment, production, new orders, supplier deliveries,
and inventories. Traders watch these surveys closely because
purchasing managers, by virtue of their jobs, have early access to
data about their company's performance, which can be a leading
indicator of overall economic performance."
[7:30pm NY Time]
AU Retail Sales           BUY 0.9%      SELL -0.3%    AUD/USD
We'll be focusing once again today on the Australian Retail Sales
m/m release and we are looking for a deviation of 0.6% from the
forecast release of 0.3%. If we get a 0.9% or -0.3%, we'd get in
either on a LONG or SHORT trade depending on the release with a high
probability of seeing the market move over 50 pips in the next 2
hours.
The Australian Dollar has been declining since the past 2 weeks, and
with yesterday's RBA decision to keep rates unchanged, the
fundamental bullish outlook of AUD was also changed to a more
neutral stance.  Therefore, with this Retail Sales we could see some
volatility in the AUD in either direction, as the long term bias for
LONG AUD is at a crucial point.
DEFINITION
"Measures the value of sales at the retail level. A rising trend has
a positive effect on the nation's currency because Retail Sales make
up a large portion of consumer spending, which is a major driver of
the economy and has a sizable impact on GDP. Traders payclose
attention to Retail Sales because it is usually the first
significant indicator of the month that relates to consumer behavior
and is susceptible to surprises."
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